American Efficient Analysis of 2023/2024 BRA

June 21, 2022
Energy Efficiency

PJM capacity prices continued their downward trend, with Tuesday’s results from the 2023/24 Base Residual Auction showing a 32% year over year decline in RTO prices, clearing $34.13/MW-day.

“The market has been oversupplied for quite some time, and it remains oversupplied,” said Pete Curtice of American Efficient LLC. “The oversupply situation, coupled with sluggish demand growth and auction delays, means that we can likely expect low capacity prices to persist.” 

Separating zones included MAAC, DPL-South, and BGE. Downward price pressures include fewer resources subject to the MOPR after the implementation of new rules. Market participants continue to make Investment decisions prior to auction price signals in the delayed BRA world. The auction, slated for December 2021, 18 months before the delivery year, was delayed another 6 months to June of 2022.

BRA clearing prices over time

BRA clearing prices over time (source: American Efficient)